Rule conversion_velocity, from the product code

30 sales an hour on one link

Real affiliate traffic converts in a curve. Scripted checkout floods convert in a wall. Thirty sales inside an hour is a wall.

Rule 9th of 12Holds, never deletesEvidence in your queue

Fraud queue on demo data: conversion_velocity sits with its verdict, subject, reason and action, above the held commissions with amounts.

The fraud queue, running on demo data.

How the rule works

The exact mechanics, from the engine. No black box, no tuning required.

  1. 01Commissions per hour

    The count is credited commissions, not clicks. The sale must exist in the ledger before it counts.

  2. 02No click history needed

    This rule works even when the click trail is thin, because it watches the money path directly.

  3. 03Hold with evidence

    The queue shows the hour's sales in a list. Flash sales and newsletter drops are releaseable in one click when they're real.

The signals

  • 30+ commissions / hour / affiliate
  • Ledger-level count
Holds, never deletesA hold freezes the commission before payout. Nothing is lost while you decide.
Evidence attachedThe queue shows exactly what tripped, side by side with the sale.

What lands in your queue

When conversion velocity fires, this is what you see. Release or uphold is your call, not the engine's.

Fraud queue · conversion_velocity · demo dataMade-up numbers
Example held commissions after conversion velocity fired, on demo data
AffiliateWhat trippedCommissionStatus
Affiliate 4434 commissions credited within one hour$412.80Held
heldWaits for youThe commission stays out of payouts until you decide.
releasedPaid normallyReal pattern after all. It returns to the pipeline.
upheldNot paidFraud confirmed. The clawback is journaled.

In the wild

$10M in royalties, all scripted

  • Case: United States v. Michael Smith, North Carolina. Charged Sep 2024, pled guilty Mar 2026. A botnet of listener accounts played AI-generated songs billions of times; ~$10M collected, ~$8M ordered repaid.
  • Stat: Imperva 2025: automated traffic passed 51% in 2024. Scripted volume is the default attack shape. Source

Cases and figures verified against court records and named reports, . Vendor estimates are labelled as such.

How attackers try to beat it

A fraudster spaces checkouts over days to stay under 30 an hour. That caps the damage per day, which is the rule doing its job: the attack gets slow, visible and reversible.

Every rule is one layer. The twelve overlap on purpose: beating one cleanly usually means walking into another.

Related rules

Rule thresholds checked against the code . Windows are rolling.

Conversion velocity questions

Can I change the threshold?

The thresholds ship fixed, tuned from the rule code and tested together. Tightening one in isolation breaks the overlap the twelve rules build as a set.

What does a hold cost me?

Nothing but time. A held commission is frozen, not deleted. If you release it, it flows to the next payout exactly as if the hold never happened.

Does this rule fire on my best affiliate?

Every rule is scoped to the commissions linked to what tripped it, weighted by conversions, and rate-limited on the click side. A rival can't aim it at your top earner.

This rule, on every sale,
before the payout.

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